Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Apex DTR Store champs
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 54.5% | 11 | 8-2-1 | 77.3% | 70.0% | 62.6% | +5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +7.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 66.3% | +10.4 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Cats | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Reduce to Ash, Crux Sight. Losers more often ran: Staggering Strike, Fast Cure, Safeguard Amulet.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |